Following on from our last blogpost where we looked at utilising Google Adwords to test SEO, how can we then take the keywords that have passed our Adwords test and predict what potential they can return for our website from top SEO rankings?
Often you will hear a figure of 42% banded about as a good reflection of a percentage of the traffic that an organic no1 ranked website typically entices from the total searches for a given keyword. This figure actually comes from data leaked by AOL back in the summer of 2006. A lot has changed online since 2006 and too more recent studies have sought to review that no 1 ranking CTR figure.
This blogpost discusses a report by optify.net whom conducted a study in December of 2010 on a collection of websites with consistent page 1 rankings for their given keywords. The Optify report discovered that the no 1 ranking website received a CTR (click through ratio) rate of 36.4%, a drop down from the above figure of 42%.
Evern more dramatic was a study by Slingshot SEO, which is discussed on this fine blogpost. The Slingshot SEO study had it’s no 1 ranking websites delivering CTR rates on average 18.2% of total traffic. Now that’s 42% down to 18.2% is this the end for SEO? No, not at all.
What we have to remember is that the Internet changes constantly and search engines aim to reflect this in their listings. Over the last year or so, we have seen Google Results begin to offer not only websites, but also video, google places, social media and shopping results too. It’s also true that over the last two years Google has also taken steps to feature sponsored links more prominently, hence why most keywords now trigger up to three sponsored links that appear above all others in their results.
As we discussed above, it is true that page 1 Google results are now populated with items that were not there before. Google Places, sponsored links, videos even thesedays Google’s own flight finder as our blogpost image shows! However, not every keyword is like this. Some keywords trigger fewer sponsored links, no Google places or any video listings at all. In other words, some keywords still deliver results more like our page 1 rankings back in 2006 when the AOL data showed a healthy CTR rating for no 1 keywords up in the 40%s. This means, that if your targeted keyword is one of these lucky keywords with most of the page 1 space to themselves, then you can probably expect to attract a higher position for CTR than you might do if you were competing for ‘flights to Paris’.
This also does not mean you should avoid keywords like ‘flights to Paris’, it just means the figures need to stack up for you based on a lower CTR. it is also worth remembering that far more people are using the Internet now than they did back in 2006, hence it is more than likely that your targeted 18.2% of today’s search numbers are ever bit as lucrative as 42% of the lower overall search figures we had back in 2006. Today. 18.2% of the keyword searches for ‘flights to Paris’ on google.co.uk should deliver something like 2693 hits on your site every month.
When looking at the three figures on offer, we can see that 42% to 36.4% to 18.2% is a very big drop down. However, this drop happens for the no 1 organic ranking website only. If we look at the no 2 ranked website, then back in 2006 AOL reported a figure of 11.9% CTR, Optify this year reported 12.5% CTR and Slingshot SEO’s report stated 10.05% for position 2 – a fluctuation between all 3 studies of (relatively speaking) only 2.45%. Want to view the figures from all 3 studies for all of the top ten positions? Just so happens I’ve made a quick spreadsheet list for you available to download in the members area. If you’re not already a member, click here to register for FREE.
It makes sense for the number 1 organic position to show the most fluctuation as that is the position that has been pushed most aggressively down screen by the changes made by Google over the years. This means that when we come to predict our traffic on keywords we have chosen for SEO, we need to evaluate our CTR figures based on what we see on page 1 already. Our competition is not simply other organic sites, it is also anything that is occupying screen space and hence enticing a click through.
The keyword ‘budget flights Paris’ when searched for on google.co.uk has only one sponsored link and no Google Flight Finder (unlike ‘flights to paris’ above), hence the no 1 organic site is positioned further up the page. We can therefore expect a higher CTR from this keyword than we should from the above mentioned ‘flights to Paris’.
As well as looking for what your keyword triggers around your organic results, also ask yourself how unique are you for your keyword? If your target keyword is your brand name, then it is very likely you’ll attract a much higher CTR rate. Additionally, if you offer a product unique to you, your CTR rate for directly related keywords should equally be high – especially if no one else quite offers the solution that you do! If however, page 1 is full of people offering exactly what you do, your CTR rate is likely to be much lower, so you need to bear that in mind when predicting traffic from future SEO rankings.
All in all, like any prediction, you have to take an educated guess based on what you see on page 1 and what you know about your market. If you want to play conservatively (as I tend to do with SEO estimations) then base your figures off the CTR rates offered by Slingshot SEO – they seem to have been constructed from tough keywords with lots of ads competing for space with the organic listings. If you feel your page 1 gives the organic rankings less to overcome, then by all means go for a CTR higher.
Once you have a CTR value your happy with, simply multiply your CTR percentage by the exact match search number and you have an estimated number of hits to your website when it achieves a no 1 (or any of the top ten positions you choose to measure) ranking . The only thing that remains is therefore to make it rank…..
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